Review of the 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions

 Here's a look back at my predictions for the 2021 Oscar nominations:

The Categories That’ll Get Announced on Monday Morning:

Best Picture:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler:  The Father

Longshots:  Da 5 Bloods, The Mauritanian, News of the World

Thoughts:  There’s a top tier of four titles led by Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari and Promising Young Woman.  The next tier is led by One Night in Miami and includes Mank and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.  Judas is a late entry in this race and has gotten some momentum.  Leaning towards Sound of Metal being the final entry, but there’s a chance the older members might pick The Father instead.  News of the World is on the outside looking in at this point.

Best Actor:

Riz Ahmed---Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman---Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins---The Father

Gary Oldman---Mank

Steven Yeun---Minari

Spoilers:  Mads Mikklesen---Another Round, Tahar Rahim---The Mauritanian

Longshot:  Delroy Lindo---Da 5 Bloods

Thoughts:  There’s usually a fear that when a nominee is considered likely for both actor/actress and supporting actor/actress that they get blanked out of both.  But Boseman’s been the front runner and I see nothing to fear here.  Hopkins and Ahmed should also be locks.  In any other year, the two of them would be fighting out for an Oscar.  Yeun kind of got hosed in 2019 for Burning and I feel like he’ll get a nomination in response for his work in Minari.  Unlike other prognosticators, I think Oldman is most vulnerable to being knocked out by a spoiler.  Mank’s cooled for a while and there’s no hurry to give Oldman another Oscar after he won for Darkest Hour.

Best Actress:

Viola Davis---Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day---The United States vs Billie Holiday

Carey Mulligan---Promising Young Woman

Vanessa Kirby---Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand---Nomadland

Spoilers:  Sophia Loren---The Life Ahead, Rosamund Pike---I Care a Lot

Longshot:  Yeri Han---Minari

Thoughts:  Davis, McDormand and Mulligan seem like mortal locks for a nomination at this point.  If I had to guess, I think Mulligan has to be the favorite to win for her turn in Woman.  Andra Day came on the radar with her Golden Globe nomination and winning it probably placed her in the field.  Kirby has received a lot of love from nominations, but if anybody slipped in at the last minute, it would be at her expense.  Loren and Pike have outside chances, but there’s a shot it could pay off for either one of them.

Best Supporting Actor:

Sacha Baron Cohen---The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya---Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr.---One Night in Miami

Paul Raci---Sound of Metal

David Strathairn---Nomadland

Spoiler:  Alan Kim---Minari

Longshots:  Chadwick Boseman---Da 5 Bloods, Jared Leto---The Little Things

Thoughts:  Cohen, Kaluuya and Odom Jr. feel like they should have their phones ready to go on Monday morning.  Raci almost feels like a lock as well.  I think it’ll come down to Strathairn and Kim for the last spot and I think with the momentum of Nomadland, it’ll be the veteran actor getting the final spot.  Of the other two, I think Leto does have a slight chance but reviews have been mixed on his performance.  Voters will likely decide Boseman is better off with just the nomination for best actor.

Best Supporting Actress:

Maria Bakalova---Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close---Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman---The Father

Jodie Foster---The Mauritanian

Youn Yuh-jung---Minari

Spoiler:  Dominique Fishback---Judas and the Black Messiah

Longshots:  Amanda Seyfried---Mank, Helena Zengel---News of the World

Thoughts:  Yuh-jung and Colman feel quite likely at this point.  Although the Borat sequel is a comedy which is usually a strike against it, there is precedent for a supporting actress to get nominated and even win (see Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny) for such a role.  Foster gets in due to her speech at the Golden Globes.  The last spot goes to Close who also got a Razzie nod for the same role which also has happened before (Amy Irving in Yentl and James Coco in Only When I Laugh).  For the record, both previous double nominees lost.  If anybody shows up to take a spot from Close or Foster, it’ll be Fishback.

Best Director:

Lee Isaac Chung---Minari

David Fincher---Mank

Aaron Sorkin---The Trial of the Chicago 7

Thomas Vinterberg---Another Round

Chloe Zhao---Nomadland

Spoilers:  Emerald Fennell---Promising Young Woman, Regina King---One Night in Miami, Florian Zeller---The Father

Longshots:  Paul Greengrass---News of the World, Shaka King---Judas and the Black Messiah

Thoughts:  Chung, Sorkin and Zhao are all DGA nominees and their films have plenty of momentum.  Some have argued that Chung is vulnerable, but I think more likely that if there’s another surprise, it’ll come at the expense of Fincher whose buzz for Mank has cooled dramatically.  Vinterberg gets the last slot for now, but understand any of the spoilers have a decent shot at taking one or two spots.  Expect chaos tomorrow.

The Rest of the Nominees:

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Father

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger

Spoilers:  Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, News of the World

Longshots:  First Cow, The Mauritanian

Thoughts:  One Night in Miami feels like a lock.  Even though they didn’t get WGA nominations due to quirky rules, Nomadland and The Father should be locked in as well.  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is vulnerable, but I think them making the best picture race should keep them in.  For the last spot, going with surprise nominee The White Tiger over Borat which will probably be penalized due to its genre.

Best Original Screenplay:

Mank

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler:  Judas and the Black Messiah

Longshots:  The Forty Year Old Version, Soul

Thoughts:  Minari, Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 feel like locks.  Sound of Metal may well be the fourth film and Mank in fifth.  I could see Judas breaking through as a decent possibility with The Forty Year Old Version as a quiet sleeper with a compelling story that could conceivably be told during the run up to the Oscars.

Best Cinematography:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

News of the World

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoilers:  Cherry, Tenet

Longshots:  Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

Thoughts:  Mank, News of the World and Nomanland feel like locks.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 should be after getting a cinematography nomination from the guild (as did the three locks).  Cherry was a surprise inclusion among the guild nominations, but I do think the voters will go with the fast charging Judas and the Black Messiah over the savior of the big screen Tenet or the critically panned Cherry.

Best Film Editing:

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoilers;  The Father, Promising Young Woman

Longshots:  News of the World, Tenet

Thoughts:  When in doubt, go with the films that have the best shot for Best Picture.  Nomadland, Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are locks.  Mank is a near lock at this point.  For the last spot, went with Minari although both spoilers could have something to say about that.

Best Production Design:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Mulan

News of the World

Tenet

Spoilers:  The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Longshots:  Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Personal History of David Copperfield

Thoughts:  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World and Tenet all feel like locks.  The last spot is up for grabs, but I think it goes for the expansive look of China in Mulan.  Both spoilers have a shot at taking the last spot.

Best Costume Design:

Ammonite

Emma

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Mulan

Spoilers:  News of the World, Promising Young Woman

Longshots:  JIngle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, One Night in Miami, The United States vs Billie Holiday

Thoughts:  Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Mank feel like locks.  Although not a lock, I do feel confident that Mulan will get a nomination here.  As for the last spot, I’ve gotten good buzz on Ammonite and I think it prevails over the spoilers.  Don’t sleep on Jingle Jangle, either.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Birds of Prey

Hillbilly Elegy

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Pinocchio

Spoilers:  Emma, The Glorias

Longshots:  The Little Things, One Night in Miami

Thoughts:  Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio feel like locks.  Mank is a near lock.  And Birds of Prey would carry on the legacy of Suicide Squad which got a nomination in this category.  If anybody breaks through, it could be Emma.

Best Score:

Blizzard of Souls

Mank

The Midnight Sky

News of the World

Soul

Spoilers:  Minari, Tenet

Longshots:  Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Thoughts:  The Midnight Sky and News of the World has pedigree on its side.  Soul has to be a lock considering it’s the frontrunner.  Mank will allow Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross the opportunity to get double nominations (they’re also a part of the team behind Soul).  As for the last spot, call it a hunch.  But when an unexpected choice makes the shortlist, odds are good there’s a decent amount of support for it.  Either spoiler has a decent shot of proving me wrong, though.

Best Original Song:

Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest)

Io Si (Seen) (The Life Ahead)

Speak Now (One Night in Miami)

Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy)

Spoilers:  Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Never Break (Giving Voice), Wuhan Flu (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Longshots:  Loyal Brave True (Mulan), Make It Work (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey), Rain Song (Minari)

Thoughts:  Io Si and Speak Now feel like locks.  The former gives Diane Warren perhaps her best shot at winning while the latter gives Leslie Odom Jr. a double nomination (but recent history doesn’t look promising at him taking home an Oscar).  Fight for You feels close behind and likely to have its name called.  Husavik may stand out among the pack and get a nomination while Turntables gets the fifth.  I’m fairly low on the confidence level of the final two spots and a spoiler or even a longshot could sneak in.

Best Sound:

Greyhound

Mank

News of the World

Nomadland

Sound of Metal

Spoilers:  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Soul, Tenet, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Longshot:  The United States vs Billie Holiday

Thoughts:  Precursor nominees seem to lock in Greyhound, News of the World and Sound of Metal.  Mank should likely get the fourth spot.  In a scramble for the last spot, I’m going with Nomadland barely ahead of a group of spoiler films.  This could be wild due to the category being merged from the two in years past for mixing and editing.

Best Visual Effects:

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Mulan

Tenet

Welcome to Chechnya

Spoilers:  The One and Only Ivan, Soul

Longshot:  Birds of Prey

Thoughts:  This feels pretty cut and dry to be honest.  Have to think Chechnya and Ivan are battling for one spot and going with the documentary.

Best Animated Film:

The Croods: A New Age

Onward

Over the Moon

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Spoilers:  Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Earwig and the Witch, On-Gaku: Our Sound

Longshot:  The Willoughbys

Thoughts:  Based on precursors and the like, only The Croods: A New Age is vulnerable.  Broadening the voting block will help its chances, but I suspect they might be replaced by a foreign animated film to join Wolfwalkers.

Best International Film:

Another Round

I’m No Longer Here

The Man Who Sold His Skin

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Two of Us

Spoilers:  Collective, Dear Comrades, La Llorona, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, A Sun

Longshots:  Charlatan, The Mole Agent

Thoughts:  Might as well have thrown out the entire list here.  This could prove to be a volatile category where there’s no idea who’ll have time to sit through 15 foreign films.  I think Another Round, Quo Vadis, Aida? And Two of Us are safe.  I’m No Longer Here might be next and based on the description, I’m taking a shot with The Man Who Sold His Skin.  Low level of confidence for the other two which is why you see so many spoilers!

Best Documentary:

Collective

Dick Johnson is Dead

Time

The Truffle Hunters

Welcome to Chechnya

Spoilers:  76 Days, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent

Longshots:  All In: The Fight for Democracy, Gunda, My Octopus Teacher

Thoughts:  This one is also a bit of a question mark, but the influx of foreign voters might go with The Truffle Hunters and Welcome to Chechnya over something like Boys State or Crip Camp.  Collective, Time and Chechnya are the ones I feel more confident in.  And for the final spot, I’m picking the divisive Dick Johnson is Dead which I think will have enough supporters to make the official list.

Best Documentary Short:

Abortion Helpline: This is Lisa

Colette

A Concerto is a Conversation

Hunger Ward

A Love Song for Latasha

Spoilers:  Do Not Split, Hysterical Girl, The Speed Cubers, What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Thoughts:  Shorts are always tricky to predict.  As you can see by the spoilers, there’s plenty of room for changes.  Those looking for more lighthearted shorts can find them with Concerto and Love Song while Abortion Helpline, Colette and Hunger Ward explore more serious issues.  Abortion Helpline is the last one in and could find itself replaced.

Best Animated Short:

Burrow

Genius Loci

If Anything Happens, I Love You

Out

The Snail and the Whale

Spoilers:  Kapemahu, Opera

Longshot:  To Gerard

Thoughts:  Shorts are always tricky to predict.  I feel good about If Anything Happens, I Love You and Out making it, but literally there’s no difference between any of the other films on the list and the spoilers.  Any of them could get in or fall out.

Best Live Action Short:

Da Yie

Feeling Through

The Human Voice

The Letter Room

Two Distant Strangers

Spoilers:  The Present, White Eye

Longshots:  Bittu, The Kicksled Choir

Thoughts:  Shorts are always tricky to predict.  But this year, we have some star power.  Imagine a film directed by Pedro Almodovar starring Tilda Swinton, Oscar Isaac and Marlee Matlin.  Sounds interesting, right?  Well, the shorts feature the names I mentioned with Almodovar directing Swinton in The Human Voice, Isaac starring in The Letter Room and Matlin producing Feeling Through.  Those three feel like locks with Two Distant Strangers.  For the last spot, I’m going with Da Yie, but either of the spoilers have a shot at claiming it.