Predicting the 2022 Academy Award Nominations

 Once again, it's about that time to read the tea leaves and learn which films will be visited by Oscar and which ones will be left wanting on Tuesday morning.  I'll break down the nomination by category and later this week reveal how well I did.  Hopefully, it'll be better than last year when I got 75 percent right (and 85 percent on the Big 6 categories).  

Only time will tell.  Let's go!  Listing everything by likelihood that its name will be called on Tuesday:

The Big 6 Nominations:

Best Picture:

The Power of the Dog

Belfast

Dune

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Licorice Pizza

King Richard

CODA

West Side Story

Don't Look Up

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Drive My Car

Nightmare Alley

Spoilers:  Tick Tick Boom, Being the Ricardos, Cyrano, House of Gucci, The Tragedy of Macbeth

You can break down best picture into three tiers.  The first tier consists of films that have been consistently at the top or close the entire way and feel like locks.  The five films in the second tier are films that have received multiple guild nominations and should feel safe in joining them (the Adam McKay film is possibly the most vulnerable of the five).  For the final two, I feel like the increased international contingent will push through Drive My Car which has received some solid critical love even if it doesn't boast an acting nod at the moment.  The last spot feels like it's down to four films, but the guild love for Alley should allow it to prevail over Boom which might suffer due to lack of love from the voters.  Being the Ricardos and House of Gucci have fighting shots, but I think both will fall short.  Maybe some residual love from the Coens (Macbeth) or the tale of Cyrano might break through?

Best Actor:

Will Smith (King Richard)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick Boom)

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Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)

Spoilers:  Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up)

The three actors in tier one have consistently been at the front of the race.  Will Smith is a slight favorite although Cumberbatch might benefit if Dog has a really good Oscar night.  Garfield can't be discounted either.  In tier two, things are a bit more shaky as Washington is the head nominee for a film that might struggle to break through the Oscar race.  Bardem is a late grower for Being the Ricardos and I think he takes the final nod from Dinklage and DiCaprio.

Best Actress:

Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)

Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)

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Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Spoilers:  Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Kidman is a slight favorite as actress Lucille Ball, but don't count out Colman who did win an Oscar for The Favourite.  She seems to be the British answer to Meryl Streep.  Gaga feels like a step behind, but she could have a chance particularly if her film exceeds expectations on Tuesday morning.  Cruz found a late run that should place her in the field.  For the last spot, I think Stewart who has been hitting the awards circuit hard will prevail over two other actresses whose biopics went nowhere in the box office.

Best Supporting Actor:

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Troy Kotsur (CODA)

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Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)

Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)

JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)

Spoilers:  Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Jared Leto (House of Gucci)

A lot of talk has been made about Best Actress being hard to predict.  But not enough has been said about Best Supporting Actor that could devolve into chaos.  Picture this:  In a repeat of the SGAs, neither actor from Belfast makes the cut.  And due to vote splits with Best Actor for Nightmare Alley, Bradley Cooper is left out of the field.  Maybe Plemons gets in then.  Maybe Jared Leto and his horrid Italian accent slips in the field.

Realistically, I think the Academy will pick Hinds while giving Dornan the shaft (it's the equivalent of Kristen Stewart's Cloud of Sils Maria for the actor of the 50 Shades trilogy).  Cooper and his extended cameo as Jon Peters will crash the field.  Leaving room for one spot and the hard charging Simmons will sneak in as Bud Frawley.

Another possibility is that the last spot will come straight out of nowhere to someone who we hadn't counted on.  Think LaKeith Stanfield from last year in Judas and the Black Messiah.

Best Supporting Actress:

Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)

Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

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Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)

Spoilers:  Ruth Negga (Passing), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), Judi Dench (Belfast)

DeBose might be one of the safer bets to win an Oscar in this tumultuous year.  Balfe and Dunst has appeared beside her in almost every field so they're both safe.  

The other two takes a little work.  But Ellis (When They See Us) is a vital part of King Richard as the strong willed mother to Venus and Serena Williams and I think the Academy will see it.  For the last spot, I'm thinking Buckley will prevail as the younger version of Colman's character.

Passing has mainly passed from the conscious of the voters, although Negga does have a shot of showing up on Tuesday.  Blanchett's nomination for the SAG awards was a surprise, but one that hasn't resonated elsewhere.  And much like Plemons in the Supporting Actor field, I can't see them giving the final spot to Dench unless Belfast over-indexes on Tuesday.

Best Director:

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

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Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

Spoilers:  Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Adam McKay (Don't Look Up)

Much like most other categories, three of these appear to be locks.  Campion is the heavy favorite for a directing Oscar (she won a screenplay one for The Piano) while both Branagh and Villeneuve have appeared in quite a few nomination fields.  Anderson is somewhat vulnerable as Licorice Pizza is more of a comedy than a drama (although that isn't hurting Branagh much).  But I think he'll prevail and the international contingent will reward Hamaguchi over Spielberg whose big risk of remaking a 50 year old plus musical proved to be a financial miss.  I'd never count out a Coen for either this or the Adapted Screenplay category.

The Screenwriting Categories:

Best Original Screenplay:

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Licorice Pizza

Being the Ricardos

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C'mon C'mon

Spoilers:  King Richard, The French Dispatch, Mass, Pig

There has been a streak of independence by the screenwriter voters to nominate a film that is its sole entry in the Oscar field.  I think the streak continues with C'mon C'mon (its writer has previously been nominated for 20th Century Women).  King Richard and Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch lead the field of spoilers.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Power of the Dog

The Lost Daughter

CODA

Dune

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Drive My Car

Spoilers:  West Side Story, Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Drive My Car gets the last spot and there's apparently a streak of foreign films getting a screenplay nomination of the last few years (thanks to Awards Watch for pointing this out).  The other four nominees are either from the WGA or ruled ineligible from the WGA due to some strange quirks the guild has.  

Just missing out is Tony Kushner's Story, Passing (which could fit the sole entry thing if the field wasn't so tough to break through) and Macbeth (which you can never fully count out a Coen).

The Sets/Crafts Awards:

Best Production Design:

Dune

The French Dispatch

West Side Story

Nightmare Alley

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The Tragedy of Macbeth

Spoilers:  Cyrano, Belfast

Big and splashy generally bests subtlety here, so going with the sci-fi drama Dune, Wes Anderson's Dispatch, Steven Spielberg's Story, Guillermo del Toro's Alley and Joel Coen's Macbeth for the five spots.  An Oscar contender and also-ran lead the spoilers.

Best Costume Design:

Dune

Cruella

Nightmare Alley

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West Side Story

House of Gucci

Spoilers:  The French Dispatch, Cyrano, Licorice Pizza

For this category, it's also about flash (and generally, the past).  So Villaneuve's Dune leads the way with the 101 Dalmatians prequel Cruella, Nightmare Alley and West Side Story.  And for the final nominee, if House of Gucci can't get in here, where can they get in the field?

A decent field of spoilers are ready to jump in in case Gucci or Story falters.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Dune

Cruella

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

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House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

Spoilers:  West Side Story, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die

Dune gets another under the board nomination here as does Cruella for turning Emma Stone goth.  Likely, this will be the sole nomination for Eyes which transformed Jessica Chastain into the wife of the televangelist.  House of Gucci may get some brickbats from critics, but its work transforming Jared Leto will give it a nod here.  And finally, more noir love for Alley here.

Don't discount Squad among the spoilers.  Its previous film in the franchise did get an Oscar nomination in this category.

The Visual Awards:

Best Cinematography:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

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West Side Story

Spoiler:  Belfast

A lot of these films check out in this category.  Sweeping Sci-Fi epic (Dune), film noir (Alley), Western (Dog) and black and white Shakespearean film (Macbeth).  The last nominee I think will be the musical Story (which has a good track record between director Spielberg and the cinematographer).

Best Film Editing:

The Power of the Dog

Dune

Don't Look Up

Belfast

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West Side Story

Spoilers:  King Richard, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die

If you are rooting for a Best Picture nominee to win, you need to first get nominated here.  All five films here are likely best picture nominees as are two of the three spoilers.  The outlier is No Time to Die, James Bond's latest film.

Best Visual Effects:

Dune

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

No Time to Die

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Godzilla vs Kong

Spoilers:  The Matrix: Resurrections, Ghostbusters: Afterlife

Here's where you'll find the big boy films, the special effects extravaganzas.  Likely Oscar nominee Dune leads the way with a couple of Marvel films and a James Bond entry.  The fifth spot will likely go with the clash of the monster titans over a pair of franchise continuations.

The Audio Awards:

Best Sound:

Dune

No Time to Die

West Side Story

Spider-Man: No Way Home

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Tick Tick Boom

Spoilers:  The Power of the Dog, A Quiet Place 2, Belfast

Ever since the two categories were merged, it's become a mix of blockbusters with Oscar contenders.  This fits the case here as well with two musicals and three blockbusters (three of the five with realistic aspirations of Best Picture).  

Don't count out Place 2 among the spoilers; the original film got a nomination for best Sound Editing.

Best Original Score:

Dune

The Power of the Dog

Don't Look Up

Encanto

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The French Dispatch

Spoilers:  Spencer, Parallel Mothers, No Time to Die

It's Hans Zimmer (Dune) versus Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog) as the two square off with the apocalyptic satire, the popular animated musical, and the Wes Anderson film.  Both of them could potentially have a second film in the field (Zimmer's No Time to Die and Greenwood's Spencer)

Best Original Song:

No Time to Die (No Time to Die)

Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)

Just Look Up (Don't Look Up)

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Somehow You Do (Four Good Days)

Down to Joy (Belfast)

Spoilers:  Guns Go Bang (The Harder They Fall), Be Alive (King Richard), Here I Am (Respect), So May We Start (Annette)

One of the safer bets at the Oscars is the Billie Eilish theme song for No Time to Die.  Joining them will be Dos Oruguitas from EGOT wannabe Lin-Manuel Miranda and the Kid Cudi/Ariana Grande duet Just Look Up (which should cause the Fox News people to melt down once they read the lyrics).  Diane Warren is usually a safe bet (Io Si made the cut last year) and for the last spot, I'm going with Down to Joy from Belfast.

Missing out are tunes by Jay-Z (Guns Go Bang), Beyonce (Be Alive), Jennifer Hudson (Here I Am) and U2 (Your Song Saved My Life).

Best Films Not Named Best Picture:

Best Animated Film:

Encanto 

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Spoiler:  Bella, Sing 2

This may be one of the safer categories.  It's possible that Bella or Sing 2 could knock off Raya, but since it's among the most nominated in the Annie awards, I think both threats will be shrugged off.

Best Documentary Film:

Flee

The Rescue

Ascension

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Attica

Simple Like Water

Spoiler:  Summer of Soul, Julia, Procession

The latest documentary in a long line of popular films to get shafted here is Summer of Soul.  The signs are sort of there:  it's a musical documentary which rarely gets a nomination and it did well enough in the theaters.  With that, Flee probably has its best chance at winning.  But there's some competition.

Perhaps the documentary on Julia Child could sneak in at number 5?

Best International Film:

Drive My Car

Flee

A Hero

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The Worst Person in the World

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Spoiler:  The Hand of God, Compartment Number 6

The category as listed feels a bit too safe.  Usually, there's a longshot that makes the cut like Better Days and The Man who Sold His Skin from last year.  I think the charming Lunana ends up taking the slot held by The Hand of God.

The Short of It:

Best Animated Short:

Us Again

Robin Robin

Namoo

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Step Into the River

Mum Is Pouring Rain

Spoiler:  Bestia, The Windshield Wiper, Boxballet

The shorts are always a crapshoot.  Disney's Us Again and Netflix's Robin Robin are likely in the field as is Namoo.  The last couple are basically a pick 'em.

Best Documentary Short:

The Queen of Basketball

Coded: The Hidden Love of JC Leyendecker

Terror Contagion

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Audible

Three Songs for Benazir

Spoiler:  A Broken House, Day of Rage, Sophie and the Baron

Much like the animated shorts, I feel fairly good about the first three and not so good about the bottom 2.  There's always a possibility that a spoiler not on this page will take a spot.

Best Live Action Short:

When the Sun Sets

The Long Goodbye

Censor of Dreams

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You're Dead, Helene

Alu Kachuu: Take and Run

Spoilers:  Tala'vision, Under the Heavens, Please Hold

Much like the other shorts, the top three feels fine.  But the bottom two are questionable.  And as always, a short not on the spoiler list could show up here.