How Well Did We Do in Predicting the 2022 Oscar Nominees?
Let's take a look back at how I did at predicting the 2022 Oscars and compare the results from what I did last year:
2021: Big 6 (29/34) (.850)
2022: Big 6 (31/35) (.886)
2021: Overall (91/119) (.765)
2022: Overall (92/120) (.767)
Improved in both aspects from last year. If it weren't for the shorts, I could have made a run at 80 percent overall.
The Big 6 Nominations: (31/35) (.886)
Best Picture: (10/10)
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Dune
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Licorice Pizza
King Richard
CODA
West Side Story
Don't Look Up
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Drive My Car
Nightmare Alley
Thoughts: Felt like Car would make the cut due to the international voters. The question was the 10th spot which went to guild favorite Alley ahead of other options.
Best Actor: (5/5)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick Boom)
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Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Thoughts: I did a good job here in getting the five right. Bardem did get the final spot and Washington's performance won out.
Best Actress: (4/5)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
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Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Thoughts: As it turns out, we were thinking Stewart was the most vulnerable when we should have been debating about Lady Gaga's performance. As it turns out, Chastain would get the final nod here.
Best Supporting Actor: (4/5)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
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Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Thoughts: Apparently, it was Plemons who would get the final nod for Best Supporting Actor along with Simmons as Bradley Cooper wound up empty-handed. Perhaps, he split votes between the lead role for Nightmare Alley and his supporting work here that led to the omission.
Best Supporting Actress: (4/5)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
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Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Thoughts: As it turns out, Balfe wasn't as safe as thought. Judi Dench took her spot which was a surprise (although some did predict she'd sneak in). I was likely one of the few people who saw Buckley's nomination coming.
Best Director: (4/5)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
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Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Thoughts: As it turned out, it was Villeneuve rather than Spielberg that got ousted in favor of Hamaguchi.
The Screenwriting Categories: (8/10) (.800)
Best Original Screenplay: (3/5)
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
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King Richard
The Worst Person in the World
Thoughts: Sometimes when you take chances like with C'mon C'mon, they don't pay off. As it turns out, they went with Worst Person in the World instead (which also made the cut for Best International Film). King Richard made the most of its job as a spoiler and knocked off Being the Ricardos.
Best Adapted Screenplay: (5/5)
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
CODA
Dune
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Drive My Car
Thoughts: On Adapted Screenplay, hit perfection here as Drive My Car powered through the competition to land that final spot.
The Sets/Crafts Awards: (12/15) (.800)
Best Production Design: (4/5)
Dune
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
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The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Thoughts: As it turned out, The Power of the Dog over-indexed in the nominations and took the spot that was going to The French Dispatch (I know the actual title is longer, but nobody's got time for that).
Best Costume Design: (4/5)
Dune
Cruella
Nightmare Alley
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West Side Story
Cyrano
Thoughts: It turned out that House of Gucci was blanked here and Cyrano (which releases later in February) jumped in.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: (4/5)
Dune
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
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House of Gucci
Coming 2 America
Thoughts: The film noir remake ended up getting spurned in favor of the Eddie Murphy long-brewing sequel which features Murphy and co-star Arsenio Hall playing several roles.
The Visual Awards: (12/15) (.800)
Best Cinematography: (5/5)
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
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West Side Story
Thoughts: Can't really comment on perfection here.
Best Film Editing: (3/5)
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Don't Look Up
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King Richard
Tick Tick Boom
Thoughts: The Best Picture nominees with the best chance of winning the prize are The Power of the Dog, King Richard, Dune, and Don't Look Up. But only Dog has a Best Director nominee among them which places them in the top spot.
Best Visual Effects: (4/5)
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
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Free Guy
Thoughts: Mostly got this right, but the special effects of Free Guy won out over the battle of the two giant monsters.
The Audio Awards: (11/15) (.733)
Best Sound: (3/5)
Dune
No Time to Die
West Side Story
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Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Thoughts: It was the case of one musical too many as Best Picture nominees Belfast and The Power of the Dog took out Boom and Home.
Best Original Score: (4/5)
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
Encanto
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Parallel Mothers
Thoughts: As it turned out, when The Power of the Dog did better than expected, it came at the expense of The French Dispatch in this category.
Best Original Song: (4/5)
No Time to Die (No Time to Die)
Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)
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Somehow You Do (Four Good Days)
Down to Joy (Belfast)
Be Alive (King Richard)
Thoughts: Somewhat disappointed that Just Look Up didn't make the cut. But top spoiler Be Alive took its place.
Best Films Not Named Best Picture: (12/15) (.800)
Best Animated Film: (5/5)
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Thoughts: Raya was the most vulnerable, but ultimately remained on the list
Best Documentary Film: (3/5)
Flee
Ascension
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Attica
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Thoughts: Of the three I felt most sure of getting nominated, it was The Rescue that was shafted. Not Summer of Soul. The last one was Writing with Fire, a documentary about women journalists breaking barriers in India.
Best International Film: (4/5)
Drive My Car
Flee
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The Worst Person in the World
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Hand of God
Thoughts: As it turned out, Lunana did make the cut. But it was the Iranian Hero that missed out, not the Argentinian God.
The Short of It: (6/15) (.400)
Best Animated Short: (1/5)
Robin Robin
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Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
The Windshield Wiper
Thoughts: Like I warned several times here and in my YouTube video, the shorts categories are always a crapshoot. Robin Robin was the only one I got right, although all 3 spoilers I listed did make the final cut.
Best Documentary Short: (3/5)
The Queen of Basketball
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Audible
Three Songs for Benazir
Lead Me Home
When We Were Bullies
Thoughts: My best performance among the shorts. Still missed out on Netflix's homeless documentary (Lead Me Home) and a documentary on bullying and memory (When We Were Bullies).
Best Live Action Short: (2/5)
The Long Goodbye
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Alu Kachuu: Take and Run
The Dress
On My Mind
Please Hold
Thoughts: Please Hold was on the spoilers list. On My Mind and The Dress were not. Insert comment about how shorts are a crapshoot.
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